(HUGE Price Shift Coming) Real Estate Market Update Don't Buy Until You Watch This!

by Smart Beach Investor | Emerald Coast Market Update

Real Estate Market Update

What’s the real estate market like right now? Have you ever been out on a windy day and someone asks, “Is it windy?” You say, “Yeah, yeah it is.” Then they ask, “Which way is it blowing?” You wet your finger and stick it up in the air to see which direction it’s blowing.  After a moment or two, you could swear that the wind is blowing in all four directions at the same time. Know what I mean? That’s the way our real estate market feels right now. So you give the most honest answer you can, “It’s hard to say.” What do I mean by that?

Let’s Look at the Destin Condo Market

In June of 2022 there were 451 condos listed for sale in the Destin Area and Days On Market for that sale was 22. The median sales price for a condo was $585,000.   

Two years later, June of 2024, the supply of condos listed for sale has more than doubled to 1,086 and the Days On Market climbed up to 98, more than 4X what it was just two years ago. These two leading indicators should tell us that prices are softening. 

Yet the median sales price still climbed to $605,000.  Read that last sentence again. What the? With inventory and days on market climbing prices should be going down. They are not, they are going up.  The wind is coming from all directions at the same time. 

What to expect with regard to the Destin Condo Market going forward?   Who knows, the wind is coming from all sides.  I do wonder this though – what happens to prices this fall if the Fed lowers rates and mortgage rates drop – even some?  My bet?  Prices will take off running again.

Destin Condo Supply

Destin Area Condo for Sale Supply is clearly up, indicating that sellers have more competition for buyers. Under these conditions, prices typically drop.

Destin Area Condo Market – Days On Market 

The days on market for Destin Area Condos is clearly up indicating that demand for condos is dropping.  Lower demand typically results in lower prices.  

Destin Area Condo Market – Median Sales Price

Median sales prices for Destin Area condos are clearly not crashing. As a matter of fact, right now they’re up. Huh, that flys in the face of… what is expected.

Take Away

Sellers are content to leave their properties (Supply) on the market as long as it takes (DOM) rather than sell “low” (Price). Buyers are content to wait (DOM) as long as it takes until the right property comes on the market (Supply) or the prices come down to a level they are willing to pay (DOM).

Again, I wonder what’s going to happen to prices if the Fed lowers rates in the fall and mortgage rates drop? Prices will probably spike as inventory gets gobbled up by smart, fast-acting buyers.

Let’s Look at the Destin Homes Market

The supply of Destin area homes for sale seems to be holding to a typical pattern of peaks and troughs built around the holiday season and the end of the school year.

The days on market trend is certainly increasing, which indicates that demand is falling off and should lead to price drops.

What does the market tell us? While sales prices over the last couple of years have fluctuated some, overall they’re flat—very flat. This tells me that sellers are content to let properties sit on the market and if the property sells, it sells; if it doesn’t, it doesn’t.

What to expect from the Destin Area Housing Market going forward? If you are looking for significant price drops across the board, I’m not seeing that. I do see some pockets of opportunity where prices swing much more and deals can be had.

Warning: The windows are tight, so you will have to be nimble to take advantage of the swings. If you want us to watch the market for you, send an email to info@smartbeachinvestor.com and we will make sure you are alerted any time prices swing.

Destin Area Homes Market – # of New Listings

The number of new listings on market for Destin Area Homes show a slight decline over the last two and a half years, but peaks and troughs occur around the holiday and school-out seasons. 

Destin Area Homes Market – Days On Market

As you can see the Destin Area Home Sales for Days On Market are trending up with a lot of ups and downs along the way.

Destin Area Homes Market – Median Sales Price

Destin Area Home Sales prices have been incredibly flat over the last couple of years, with a few minor spikes and fall-offs.


I think most sellers are willing to let properties sit on the market as they wait for buyers to blink and pay the high prices. There are a few exceptions where buyers find a property they simply want and will pay the price, and there are sellers who decide a “low” price achieves their goal for selling and sell.

I’m sure both sides are looking for the Fed to make a move, so let’s see what happens with regard to mortgage rates and affordability.

If I were a betting man, I would bet the Fed lowers rates in the fall, buyers jump at the opportunity and buy up the available inventory, and prices of homes for sale in Destin spike.


30A Real Estate Update

Let’s Look at the 30A Condo Market

It seems like things are starting to settle down a little with regard to the 30A Condo Market. What do I mean by that? Look at the number of new listings coming online since March of 2024—supply is dropping. That means prices should start to climb as buyers have fewer options to choose from.

Now look at the days on market (DOM), which will tell us if the demand is there or not. Climbing DOM usually indicates demand is falling and therefore prices will likely drop. That is not happening. DOM has been flat or dropping since the beginning of the year. Are prices going up?

Yes, look at the median sales prices for 30A condos since February—they are climbing fast.

There is certainly volatility, which creates timing opportunities to get better deals if you’re a buyer or better prices if you’re a seller. In either case, you need to be ready to act quickly to avoid missing out on a deal. Email me at info@smartbeachinvestor.com and we will monitor the market for you, alerting you to changes.

30A Condo Market – # of New Listings For Sale (Supply)

The number of new condo listings shows a steady incline overall, but with peaks and troughs, meaning there are opportunities for deals if timed right.

30A Condo Market – # of Days On Market 

Days On Market show a steady incline overall, but there have been massive spikes and falloffs. Not sure I can tell you why that is. If this year follows last year, buckle up—we’re about to go on a wild ride.

30A Condo Market – Median Sales Price

Median Sales Prices were mostly flat until they spiked last fall and then fell. Now? Oh my.


It looks like the condo market on 30A is moving toward a seller’s market as inventory and days on market drop, creating a telltale spike in prices.

What happens as we move forward? Is this a false spike? Maybe, but if mortgage rates come down in the fall, this could just be the beginning.

Let’s Look at the 30A Homes Market 

It looks like supply is coming down, which will likely put pressure on prices this fall and into the new year. Days on Market are up but showing signs of moderating and even dropping, which tells me buyers are starting to take properties off the board regardless of price.

Why do I say that? Because prices are generally up over the last year or so. I don’t think buyers would pay the high prices if they thought prices were going to drop.

30A Houses Market – # of New Listings For Sale

The number of new listings is a valley between two peaks. I would expect a period of moderation until this fall as buyers and sellers wait to see what happens with mortgage rates.

30A Houses Market – # Days On Market 

Days on Market have climbed over the last couple of years and have started to fall. They are currently running fairly flat, which indicates that demand is at least consistent right now.

30A Houses Market – Median Sales Price 

Median sales prices are generally trending up, but like other areas of the Emerald Coast, the actual curve is choppy.


The 30A home market may jump around a bit, and if we get a drop in mortgage rates this fall, I would expect prices to climb fast as buyers take advantage of the low rates and snap up any available inventory.


Panama City Beach Real Estate Update

Let’s Look at the Panama City Beach Condo Market

The Panama City Beach condo market is like the rest of Florida’s Emerald Coast Real Estate Market—confused. The inventory of new listings shows a declining trend, but I wonder if that is mostly because of the high numbers posted in early 2022 when COVID was winding down but people were still dialed into it.

Here’s why: July of 2022 showed 87 new listings, and May of 2024 showed the same number, 87.

The Days On Market numbers clearly show that it’s taking longer to sell a condo in Panama City Beach. DOM in June of 2022 was 20 days. Last month, it was 106 days. That should be a leading indicator that prices are softening. I guess that’s what is happening, but barely.

What do I mean?

In July of 2022, the median sales price for a Panama City Beach condo was $408,000.

In October of 2023, it was $405,000.

In January of 2024, it was $407,500, and in May it’s $400,000.

These numbers do not suggest that sales prices are crashing.

Panama City Beach Condo Market – # of New Listings For Sale

Panama City Beach condo supply (number of new listings) is trending down with spring break last year being significantly more active than this year.

Panama City Beach Condo Market – # of Days On Market 

The Days on Market numbers are definitely trending up.  This would typically be an indicator that demand is softening and lower prices should follow.

Panama City Beach Condo Market – Median Sales Price

Prices for Panama City Beach condos are gently sloping downward. Yes, there are a few spikes and fall-offs, but prices seem to be sticking close to that $400,000 line.


If you are waiting for prices to crash, I just don’t think that is going to happen. I think the better strategy is to find a property where the numbers work at today’s rates and today’s prices, then if rates do come down, refinance into an even better deal.

Because there are spikes, there are opportunities to sell higher and buy lower. If you want to buy or sell at higher or lower prices, you need to be nimble and on top of the market. We can do that for you. Just email me at info@smartbeachinvestor.com and we’ll make sure you are alerted whenever prices move.

Let’s Look at the Panama City Beach Homes Market

The Panama City Beach homes for sale market was strong coming out of COVID and then slumped when mortgage rates jumped. Since then, it’s been relatively stable with drops during the holiday season and spikes at the end of the school year.

The days on market are climbing, no doubt about that. I believe it has everything to do with mortgage rates and affordability impacting buyer demand. Sellers are at a low basis, having either bought with a low mortgage rate or refinanced into one. Their motivation to sell at “market” prices is low right now.

This shows up in the median sales prices. The median sales price for a house in Panama City Beach back in June of 2022 was $525,000. Today, it’s $506,250. That’s a little over a 3% drop in price. In other words, not a price crash.

What to expect going forward? With still relatively little inventory and high mortgage rates, look for properties to continue to sit on the market. There will be some opportunities as there are always a handful of short spikes and fall-offs. Watch closely if you are considering buying or selling before the end of the year.

Panama City Beach Homes Market – # of New Listings (Supply)

The number of new listings for Panama City Beach homes for sale flirted with low ebbs during the holiday season before bouncing back once school got out and people were more serious about moving. I don’t see any big jump in inventory that will result in a crash in market prices.

Panama City Beach Homes – # of Days On Market

Panama City Beach Homes have shown Days On Market to be on a steady increase.  This typically means that buyer willingness to pay “high” prices coupled with sellers reluctance to sell at  “low” prices causes houses to sit on the market longer. I don’t think it’s a harbinger of a price crash about to come. 

Panama City Beach Homes – Median Sales Price

Panama City Beach homes’ median sales prices have been pretty flat over the last few years. There have been a couple of dips and spikes, but overall, it has been pretty flat. Again, I don’t see any indicators that a significant price fall-off is about to happen.


The Panama City homes market is fairly consistent right now, with not a lot of movement one way or another. Days on market are slightly up, but even then, they still lean toward a seller’s market. If you are hoping for a crash in prices or a massive jump in inventory, I just don’t see it.

What Does The Future Hold For Florida Real Estate?

We are wealth builders, so our goal (whether you are buying or selling) is to build or protect your wealth – based on your financial goals and the current market conditions.


Bottom Line

Markets are economics driven – supply and demand generally determines what happens with prices.  Of course there are short term blips but over time prices tend to go up.  Because the supply right now is up more than it’s been in a while there may be a softening of prices – but I think it’s going to be short term in length.


For Short Term Sellers 

The opportunity for short time owners considering selling in the next two years or less (I normally say five years but this feels less than that) you should sell now before prices do drop (even some).

For Long Term Holders 

If you are planning to own long term (longer the better) then you may see rents fall off some over the next year or so but that is a natural cycle.   Over time, you will be fine, you may even decide to buy another property if prices drop more than I expect.

For Short Term Buyers 

If you are buying a condo or house at the beach the same considerations apply for you.  If you are planning on buying and owning for a short while then you may want to consider not buying and simply renting.  It’s a safer short term bet.

For Long Term Buyers 

If you are a buy and hold investor you should start looking now, if you find a property that achieves your goals for investing buy it.  Then, if mortgage rates come down you can refinance into a better deal.  If they don’t, you are in at a good rate.

Pro Tip: If prices take a substantial downturn (and they could) then you need to be sure you have the liquidity to carry the property through the down cycle.


Final Thoughts

Remember, real estate investing works best when played as a long game. While there might be short-term fluctuations with prices, the overall trend is upward. Stay informed, stay patient, and you will thrive. We are wealth builders, so our goal (whether you are buying or selling) is to build or protect your wealth – based on your financial goals and the current market conditions.
Email Info@smartbeachinvestor.com or call us at 850-654-3325 today and let’s talk about how you can max out your position as a buyer, a seller or as an owner to continue building your family’s wealth well into the future.

Committed to your success,

John Moran – CEO

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