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For weeks—actually, months—I’ve been saying that prices have held steady while transaction volume has crashed. But that message is starting to change.

Prices are now starting to fall. Hard.

And honestly? It makes sense. Between negative headlines, a sluggish economy, skyrocketing insurance costs, and special assessments tied to milestone inspections and SIR requirements—all happening at the same time mortgage rates remain high and rental demand is pulling back—something had to give.

It looks like that “something” is property prices.

Typically, I group Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Miramar Beach together as one region; 30A West and East as another; and Panama City Beach as its own.  But this week, I went deeper—looking for subpatterns within each of those markets.

First, we’ll look at condos. Then we’ll move on to single-family homes.

 

Click here JohnMoran@AtTheBeachTeam.com to connect. Let’s talk.

Good News for Condo Sellers

Destin-area condo sellers, here you go—buyers are finally starting to show up, and deals are happening.

How do we know? Pending Sales (Future Closings) are up. Last week, 32 condos went under contract, compared to just 13 that closed.

And here’s the kicker: MLS data shows 49 pending sales for February so far—32 of them in the last week alone. That’s a 35% week-over-week surge.

Another win for sellers? Fewer new listings hitting the market. Last week, only 48 condos were listed—down 19% from the week before. Less competition means a better shot at holding prices steady.

Not-So-Good News for Condo Sellers

Now, for the reality check: The buyer pool is still way smaller than it used to be.

  • In January 2023, 63 condos sold—which was already low. This year? Just 44 condos closed—a 30% YoY drop.
  • Midway through February, only 25 condos have sold—a 69% drop from last year.

There’s still time to recover before the month ends, but right now, demand remains weak.

 

Here’s the Thing…

Despite the slowdown in sales, prices remain really high: The median condo price in 2019 was $342,000. Today? $585,000—a 75% jump. It’s impressive how the prices have held up even in the face of:

  • Mortgage rates have soared—from 3.94% in 2019 to 7.01% today.
  • Insurance costs? Up nearly 60% since 2019.

All of this puts huge pressure on sellers to drop prices.

But…

Buyers, Be Careful

If you’re sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a price collapse—be careful. You might just wait yourself right into the next price surge.

Here’s why:

  • The median condo sales price (YTD) in Destin is $555,000.
  • Last year at this time, it was $571,750—a drop of only 2.9%.

People, that’s not a crash—Hell, it’s barely a dip.

A Stare Down

Right now, we’ve got a classic stare-down happening:

  • Sellers are holding their ground on prices—or choosing not to list at all.
  • Buyers are holding their ground on prices—or choosing not to buy at all.

The result?  Listings sold are down 24% YoY, while median sales prices are UP 2.8% YoY.

It’s a battle of patience—sellers betting they can hold onto their high prices, and buyers hoping for a collapse that hasn’t come. Yet.

Before we predict who’s going to blink first, let’s take a look at what’s happening in the Destin housing market.

Good News for Destin Home Buyers

If you’re thinking about selling in Destin or Miramar Beach, the numbers are in your favor. Buyers are showing up, and homes are moving.

Pending home sales are heating up—13 homes went under contract last week, a 31% jump over the 10-week average. More buyers are stepping in.

Closed sales are climbing, too—11 homes sold last week, nearly double the six-week average of 6. The market is showing signs of life.

Good News for Destin Home Buyers

Buyers, you’ve got an opportunity—home prices in Destin/Miramar Beach are down 16.7% YoY. That’s a serious discount compared to this time last year.

Inventory is expanding. The number of homes for sale was up 6.4% YoY in January. While listings have dipped slightly in February, expect more to hit the market in the coming weeks.

A Win for Both

List prices are holding firm at $1,199,500—unchanged from this time last year.

For sellers, that’s stability.
For buyers, no sudden price jumps.

It’s a push. The market is balanced—for now.

Thinking of selling? Click to Get a FREE Value Analysis

Buying? Act Now and secure your place at the beach

What Will Cause a Dramatic Drop in Prices?

If you’re waiting for a massive price drop, here’s the reality: It won’t happen unless the U.S. economy craters.

Here’s why: People who own beach real estate aren’t forced sellers. They bought because they can afford it. Their careers are strong, their investment accounts are up, and most have ultra-low mortgage rates.

Sure, costs are up and rental income is softer. But most owners aren’t hurting. They’re not desperate. And if they don’t have to sell, they won’t. That’s why we’re not seeing a crash in 2025.

But…

Not everyone is sitting pretty.

Some owners bought too late.
They paid high prices.
They missed the 3% mortgage rates.
Now? They’re stuck with higher costs, lower rental income, and shrinking margins.

And that’s where the best deals are hiding—owners who got in at the wrong time and are now looking for a way out. This is where smart buyers should focus.

Are There Good Deals to Be Had?

100%—there are always deals to be had. But what makes a deal depends on your goals.

  • For me? A deal means cash flow from Day 1—renters covering the mortgage and all expenses so my investment pays for itself.
  • For others? It’s about lifestyle—a starter beach property they can enjoy part-time while renting it out to subsidize ownership. That works too.
  • For some? It’s all about cash-on-cash return—if the numbers don’t work, they’re out. Totally fair.

Bottom line: No matter the market, there are always opportunities—if you know where to look.

Want today’s best deals? Click here

 

My Theory on Our Market 

Folks who bought post-pandemic buyers are about to feel the squeeze—and it won’t be a short-lived pinch. The pressure could last well into 2026.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see prices slide 10% over the next two years as the economy recalibrates. Some folks will feel it more than others, but make no mistake—this market is shifting.

The Next Two Years? Buckle Up.

This market is going to swing between extremes.

  • On one end: Some sellers will land record-high prices—because they can. They can wait for a well healed buyer to show – or not. It’s a good position to be in. 
  • On the other: Some will be forced to cut their prices just to get out—because they have to.  Yeah, that’s not a good spot to be in, but it’s a reality for a good number of people.

Forget “averages.” This market won’t follow the usual playbook—it will be driven by extremes.

Pro-Level Skills Required

The 2025-2026 beach real estate market will belong to the pros—the ones who know exactly where to look and what moves to make.

If you’re not tracking this market daily, you need to be connected to someone who is.

The Long-Term Future of Real Estate at the Beach?

The long-term upside? It’s massive. And here’s exactly why investors should pay attention.

Market Cycles Are Nothing New

Real estate runs in cycles—it always has, and it always will.

  • From 2011 to 2019, we rode a wave of growth.
  • In 2020 and 2021, we saw an explosive surge.
  • Over the last few years, we’ve felt the pullback—just like every cycle before it.

This market has softened in almost every way—except prices. That makes sense because prices are the last thing to adjust in a downturn.

Now, in 2025, we’re seeing price pressure—but that doesn’t mean a collapse.

Perspective Matters

Since 2019:
✅ Condo prices are up 75%.
✅ Home prices are up 53%.

So even if prices dip 10%, owners are still way ahead—and from there? Prices climb again. That’s how real estate works.

Thinking about selling? Even with some price pressure, most owners who bought before 2021 are still sitting on solid equity. If you’re curious about what your property is worth in today’s market, I’ll run the numbers for you—no cost, no obligation.

Click here for a free property value analysis, or just reply to this email, and I’ll send you the details.

Why the Future Looks Bright

✅ The Weather – Warm. Sunny. Paradise.
✅ The Beach – World-class beaches, no flight required.
✅ Scarcity – They’re not making more beachfront land.
✅ Taxes – No state income tax, and if property tax laws change? Game-changer.
✅ Insurance – Costs seem to be leveling off—good news for investors.
✅ Milestone Survey & SIRS – Condo buildings are stronger financially and structurally.
✅ Demand – Florida is one of the fastest-growing states, and the Southeast is leading U.S. migration. More people = more demand for homes and rentals.

Want to boost your rental income? Even in a shifting market, smart management and marketing can help you earn more from your property. If you’d like a free rental income analysis, click here or reply to this email.

The Bottom Line?

Add it all up, and the long-term opportunity for owners and investors on Florida’s Emerald Coast isn’t just big—it’s enormous.

Final Thoughts

Remember, real estate investing works best when played as a long game. While there might be short-term fluctuations with prices, the overall trend is upward. Stay informed, stay patient, and you will thrive. We are wealth builders, so our goal (whether you are buying or selling) is to build or protect your wealth – based on your financial goals and the current market conditions.

Email JohnMoran@AtTheBeachTeam.com or call us at 850-654-3325 today and let’s talk about how you can max out your position as a buyer, a seller or as an owner to continue building your family’s wealth well into the future.

Committed to your success,

John Moran – CEO

The Smart Beach Investor | Keller Williams Realty AT THE BEACH TEAM

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